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Edmund S. Greenslet
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The Airline monitor provides Aircraft Forcast and Engine Forcast Data published 11 months a year. Publications are distributed in printed form and/or online which includes spreadsheets, pdf publication copies, and HTML.
Engine Forcast Information Includes:
  • Engines Included
  • Companies that Use this Material
  • Forecast Production Data
  • Macro Drivers Utilized in Producing Forecast
  • Retirement Forecast
  • Tables


Engine Forcast:

The forecast is the product of an intense evaluation of developments in the economy, aviation regulation, retirements, current orders and of the manufacturers' future plans.

Each August, The Airline Monitor provides an independent engine production forecast for the next twenty years based
on the current
Aircraft Production Forecast. The publisher estimates each engine manufacturer's share of future aircraft orders and reflects engine retirements as their aircraft are removed from service.

Engine Production Forecast

This forecast is based on the aircraft production forecast and Edmund S. Greenslet’s views of the prospects for future engine selections. The resulting forecast is based on his estimates for each manufacturer’s penetration of each aircraft type for new orders and on the basis for aircraft retirements for removals from the fleet.

Engine Forecast Data

From the advent of the jet engine (in 1947) through the twenty-year aircraft production forecast period (2020), engine delivery and operating fleet data is tabulated in different ways allowing for powerful trend analyses.
Total installed engines delivered by manufacturer, with market share. Click here for an example.
Number of aircraft delivered powered by each engine manufacturer, with market share. Click here for an example.
Installed engines in service at the end of each year by engine manufacturer, with market shares. Click here for an example.
Estimated engine prices and dollar value of deliveries from 1990 onwards for each engine model. Click here for an example.
History and forecast of aircraft delivered by engine type when aircraft is certified with engines from more than one manufacturer. Click here for an example.
By engine manufacturer, engine deliveries, value, and installed by aircraft type. Click here for an example.

Engine Retirement Forecast

Aircraft retirement forecasts are based on the assumption that passenger aircraft will be retired during years 26 thru 30 from first delivery and cargo aircraft will be retired during years 41 to 45.

It is assumed that installed engines are retired from service with their aircraft. No allowance is made for the possible utilization of removed engines as spare engines. Click here for an example.

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Who Uses Engine Data

Parts suppliers and repair/overhaul companies – Even though there have been significant improvements in the life of engine components with each new product cycle, engine parts have a significantly larger replacement demand than aircraft parts. An understanding of both engine production numbers and the trend in the number of active engines by type in the world fleet is critical to parts suppliers’ and maintenance organizations’ planning requirements.

Aerospace companies that invest in products used by new engine models find the 20-year forecast particularly valuable as an independent view of the industry. Here again, both the data and the publisher’s thought process on how airlines’ use of aircraft is likely to change over time is of significant importance to companies making investments with a 25 to 35-year life cycle.

Investors in either equity or debt securities that rely on demand for commercial aircraft manufacturing output need high quality independent information on the likely demand of each manufacturer’s products.


Macro Drivers Utilized in Aircraft Production Forecast

  • Demand Growth (Airline traffic, RPM)
  • Aircraft Utilization per Day
  • Load Factor
  • Average Aircraft Size
  • Aircraft Retirement
  • Aircraft Production by Aircraft Type

Given the dynamics of the market over the past few years, the forecast of 2000 is really in three parts. The first runs through 2003 and is largely based on indicated production rates of the manufacturers. The second goes from 2004 to 2010, and its primary driver is the need to work off the large number of surplus aircraft, that we see developing over the four year period 2000 to 2003. Finally, there is the ten year forecast of 2011 to 2020 where we allow traffic and retirement projections to dictate production rates with a constant, low level of surplus aircraft.

Examples:
World Airline Traffic Capacity
Measuring Productivity and Forecasting Aircraft Requirements
Development of the World Jet Aircraft Fleet

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Sponsored by ESG Aviation Services and Airline Capital
Copyright 2005