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Edmund S. Greenslet
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The Airline monitor provides Aircraft Forcast and Engine Forcast Data published 11 months a year. Publications are distributed in printed form and/or online which includes spreadsheets, pdf publication copies, and HTML.
Aircraft Forcast information includes:
  • Aircraft Included
  • Aircraft Manufacturers Included
  • Companies that Use this Material
  • Aircraft Production Data
  • Macro Drivers Utilized in Producing Forecast
  • Retirement Forecast
  • Time Frame
  • Tables
  • Manufacturer Profits
 

Aircraft Forcast:

The forecast is the product of an intense evaluation of developments in the economy, aviation regulation, retirements, current orders and of the manufacturers' future plans.

Twice a year in July and January, The Airline Monitor provides an independent aircraft production forecast for the next twenty years.
It includes a discussion of the underlying rationale and a comprehensive set of the data used in the forecast.

Aircraft Manufacturers Included

  • Airbus
  • Boeing
  • Bombardier
  • British Aerospace
  • Canadair
  • Fairchild/Dornier
  • Embraer
  • Fokker
  • Lockheed
  • McDonnell-Douglas Corporation

Aircraft Production Data

Historical data is tabulated from 1964 to the present, and a 20-year forecast by aircraft type (Example):

  • Number of aircraft produced each year
  • The average price of aircraft
  • Dollar deliveries
  • Year-end backlog in dollars
  • Seats delivered
  • Manufacturer market share

Aircraft Retirement Forecast

Actual and forecast retirements are published for each aircraft model for each year since 1972. One of the most
important summary tables places the retirements in the context of the world fleet, size, annual deliveries, and
surplus inventory.

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Time Frame

Most information is provided annually for the past twenty years and for the next twenty years. However, some data
is available from 1964.

Companies that Use The Aircraft Production Forecast

Aerospace companies and spare parts dealers need to estimate demand for their product. Since the majority of
the demand for parts is for those used in the production of new equipment, it is critical for management to have a
clear view of how production will change over the next few years.

Aerospace companies that are making investments with a twenty-five to thirty-five year life cycle, especially on new
aircraft models, find The Airline Monitor’s twenty-year forecast particularly valuable.

Investors in either equity or debt securities in companies whose demand is highly correlated to the demand for new
aircraft need high quality information on the new aircraft market.

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Macro Drivers Utilized in Aircraft Production Forecast

  • Demand Growth (Airline traffic, RPM)
  • Aircraft Utilization per Day
  • Load Factor
  • Average Aircraft Size
  • Aircraft Retirement
  • Aircraft Production by Aircraft Type

World Airline Traffic and Capacity
Measuring Productivity and Forecasting Aircraft Requirements
Development of the World Jet Fleet

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Manufacturer Profits

The November issue provides Mr. Greenslet's estimates of the profitability of each aircraft model.

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Sponsored by ESG Aviation Services and Airline Capital
Copyright 2005