Aircraft Forcast:

The forecast is the product of an intense evaluation of developments in the economy, aviation regulation, retirements, current orders and of the manufacturers' future plans.

Twice a year in July and January, The Airline Monitor provides an independent aircraft production forecast for the next twenty years.
It includes a discussion of the underlying rationale and a comprehensive set of the data used in the forecast.

Aircraft Manufacturers Included

Airbus
Boeing
Bombardier
British Aerospace
Canadair
Fairchild/Dornier
Embraer
Fokker
Lockheed
McDonnell-Douglas Corporation

Aircraft Production Data

Historical data is tabulated from 1964 to the present, and a 20-year forecast by aircraft type (Example):

Number of aircraft produced each year
The average price of aircraft
Dollar deliveries
Year-end backlog in dollars
Seats delivered
Manufacturer market share

Aircraft Retirement Forecast

Actual and forecast retirements are published for each aircraft model for each year since 1972. One of the most
important summary tables places the retirements in the context of the world fleet, size, annual deliveries, and
surplus inventory.

Time Frame

Most information is provided annually for the past twenty years and for the next twenty years. However, some data
is available from 1964.

Companies that Use The Aircraft Production Forecast

Aerospace companies and spare parts dealers need to estimate demand for their product. Since the majority of
the demand for parts is for those used in the production of new equipment, it is critical for management to have a
clear view of how production will change over the next few years.

Aerospace companies that are making investments with a twenty-five to thirty-five year life cycle, especially on new
aircraft models, find The Airline Monitor’s twenty-year forecast particularly valuable.

Investors in either equity or debt securities in companies whose demand is highly correlated to the demand for new
aircraft need high quality information on the new aircraft market.
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Macro Drivers Utilized in Aircraft Production Forecast

Demand Growth (Airline traffic, RPM)
Aircraft Utilization per Day
Load Factor
Average Aircraft Size
Aircraft Retirement
Aircraft Production by Aircraft Type

World Airline Traffic and Capacity
Measuring Productivity and Forecasting Aircraft Requirements
Development of the World Jet Fleet

Manufacturer Profits

The November issue provides Mr. Greenslet's estimates of the profitability of each aircraft model.